On March 17, 2025, when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that Nigeria’s inflation rate had dropped to 23.18 percent in February, the lowest in recent months, the news excited many who saw it as a sign of economic recovery.
Their argument is based on the fact that there has been steady drop in the inflation rate since the last quarter of 2024; from 34.80 percent in December 2024, to 24.48 percent in January 2025, and down to 23.18 percent in February, with an anticipation further decline this March.
As expected, government officials and pro-government supporters are more excited over the development, while praising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his economic reform policies, which they insist are yielding fruits.
Anjorin Adegoke, a pro-government supporter, who bought a 50kg bag of rice for N115,000 in December 2024, is excited that the same bag goes for N90,000 now, with some brands selling between N80,000 and N70,000.
“There are reasons to cheer. The same 50kg bag of rice sold for N60,000 this time last year, we will get there because the government is making efforts to beat inflation further down and we are seeing the evidence. Prices will drop further in the year, let us be hopeful,” he urged.
As well, Sunday Dare, one of spokespersons to President Tinubu, recently said on his X handle that the price inflation of most food stuff is being reversed, prices of major foodstuffs are dropping, while petrol prices are stabilising.
Considering the above, Dare insisted that the reforms of the president are impacting positively on the economy and Nigerian citizens.
But the realities out there are different as many Nigerians still groan under the cost-of-living crisis.
For them, there is no proof of the drop in the inflation rate as prices of commodities, transportation, healthcare, house rent and education are still very high.
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So, while some believe that the economy is turning the corner with the reforms, many others argue that the slight reduction in prices of food items are not significant enough to bring cheers.
Explaining the situation, Edwin Omonuwa, an economist, noted that prices are still rising but in a slower rate than before, hence difficult to feel the impact.
“I hope you know that Nigeria is a capitalist economy. The reality is that prices are not coming down, but rising at a slower rate now. They are also not because of the economic reforms. The average consumer is in a difficult situation now because there is a new baseline that makes it difficult to see drop in prices as the Naira is not appreciating enough to boost the drop in the inflation rate,” he explained.
According to Onyewuchi Akagbule, a senior university lecturer, the drop in the inflation rate leaves less to cheer about as the reality on the streets say otherwise.
“There is no denial of the slight reduction in the prices of some food items in the market, that is understandable because of the normal lull in business in the first two months of every year. But the impact is not felt because the percentage drop is very negligible, and prices are still rising, but slower, than they used to be,” Akagbule said.
He argued that the several reductions in petrol pump price by the Dangote Refinery, which forced the “reluctant” NNPC to reduce as well, have not reflected on transport fares as transporters insist that other variables, like high price of spare parts, tyre, battery, mechanic workmanship, vulcanizers, all contribute to the high fares.
But what seems a serious concern for Joke Alatise, a banker, is the imminent fuel pump price increase by the Dangote Refinery, which she noted would likely be and would impact negatively on inflation if talks between the refinery and the NNPC fail.
“We have had three reductions in petrol pump price by the Dangote Refinery since this year, which did not reduce transport fares. But if they increase the price tomorrow, price of everything will rise again.
I hope the government is aware; the NBS should also warn the government on the implications and not just reporting drop in inflation. It should advise the government to sustain the drop in inflation by interfacing in the Dangote/NNPC talks to curtail increases in fuel pump price.
“The government people do not buy petrol; they don’t go to the market, but we the masses do. So, priority should be given to the welfare of the masses than business owners and government officials,” Alatise warned.
As captured by the banker, the masses are the worst hit in the economic reforms, hence many call for the drop in inflation to trickle down to the prices of commodities in the market.
“We are all buying from the same market and people are saying prices are dropping. I haven’t seen much of the drop. The price of rice they are jubilating over has started increasing again. Prices on the shelves of grocery stores are being changed to reflect increase almost every week.
So, the drop in inflation, for me, is not real. They want to make Mr. President happy and to say his reforms are working when a bag of cement is over N10,000 now,” Tamunokeme Alaibe, a sailor and father of four, decried.
For Akagbule, a lower inflation rate that does not improve the living standards of Nigerians does not make any sense.
But as long as prices are still rising, wages remain stagnant, and unemployment is high, with income earners under pressure, Omonuwa noted that drop in inflation in such situations can only be sustained and not celebrated because living standards of many Nigerians have not improved yet.
An observer who spoke with BusinessDay Sunday on condition of anonymity said that while he would not blame those who are seeing the positive side of President Tinubu’s reforms, his own simple tool of measurement of a booming economy is the quality of life in society.
The observer said: “I live in the Nigerian society. I go to work where I mix up and discuss with colleagues; I belong to a religious organization where I observe how people give offerings these days; I belong to many other social groups where I listen to what people say about how they live now, and I have a family and extended family members; I know the volume of requests I receive now compared to what it used to be two years or three years back. I also move about in my community and feel the pulse of other people; my conclusion is, those who delight in telling lies and playing politics with the reality on ground are free to go ahead. You do not need to ask a person that is suffering from migraine if he is feeling any pain, the person’s facial expression will show that. What I am saying in effect is that there is intense suffering in Nigeria. Period.”
