Australia’s birth rate now “perilously low” – reaching point of “no return”

Experts have warned that Australia’s birth rate has hit a record low, and is approaching a point of no-return with severe consequences for the country’s economic future.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released figures showing 286,998 births were registered in Australia in 2023, resulting in a total fertility rate of just 1.50 babies per woman. The fertility rate has dropped from 1.86 in 1993 – when it was already below the replacement level required of 2.1 – to to 1.50 last year, an all-time low.

Australian National University demographer Liz Allen told ABC News that the nation’s birth rate is now perilously low. “We’ve hit rock bottom,” she said.

“We’ve got to a position where young people are saying now is inhospitable to having children,” Dr Allen told ABC news. “And young people are unlikely to achieve their desired family size.

“I’m not talking oodles and oodles of children — I’m talking a child, maybe a second one.”

“What is so important about this particular number, 1.5, is that once we hit this figure we are basically staring down the barrel of no return,” she added.

Dr Allen explained that when a birth rates reached such a low level, the negative effect on economic growth because of the fall in the number of babies being born, then led to people having even fewer babies.

“Once we hit ultra-low fertility like say, for example, countries in our region, like South Korea, there is generally no return,” Dr Allen said.

South Korea has the lowest birth rate in the world – with latest figures showing that births per woman have fallen to 0.72, the lowest since the nation fell below the critical fertility threshold of 2.1 in 1984. Researchers say women in that country feel they are being presented with a trade-off between a career and a family, and that they increasingly choose a career.

Dr Allen also pointed to a “deep-seated attitudinal problem” facing millions of younger Australians, ABC said, with a lack enthusiasm about the future shaped by housing, climate change and gender equality concerns.

Terry Rawnsley, an economist at KPMG who also spoke to ABC, said the fertility rate fall to 1.5 signified a “dramatic number”.

“If you look at the international data and you look at countries who have slipped below [a fertility rate of] 1.5 — places like Italy, South Korea, Japan — and in those countries you do start to have this demographic time bomb starting to go off,” he said.

“There’s less and less workers being able to generate economic activity, people start to leave the country due to a lack of economic opportunities, and you do start to have a slippery slope towards a declining population.

“So the 1.5 is a place we want to start having some real firm conversations about how we try to turn this number around, because I don’t think we want to be pushing much below this in the longer term.”

The latest fertility crash news led to a local radio star and Australian Football League “legend” describing younger people as “selfish” for not having children, according to local media outlet, Gold Coast bulletin.

Former Adelaide Crows star Stephen Rowe said “That just tells me how selfish our society is” – adding that: “Back in my day, you fell in love with a beautiful woman. You kept a full-time job, you had some fun at night, you had a baby.”

“You either rented or bought a house. You worked hard, actually turned up to work and worked hard. Built a life and a family together, and everything else was insignificant.”

“Nowadays, I’ve got to have the holiday, the Instagram account, I’ve got to have the clothes and I’ve got to go to the Adelaide Cup, the Melbourne Cup, the this cup. I see it in my kids.”

His co-host responded by saying younger Australians could not afford housing, which she said was leading to the sharp fall off in family formation. “You cannot afford a mortgage these days on one income … that is not an option for my generation,” she said, Gold Coast bulletin reported.

“How about live within your means?” Rowe said in response. “Only buy a house you can afford.

“I think modern people are selfish. I do. You want all of these things and you want them all today. You (Lee) are like my kids … mate, fall in love, have a baby, and it will work itself out because you’re in love and you’ve got a kid.”